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Old 02-13-2007, 10:14 PM
leveragefx leveragefx is offline
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Probability Bands Usually Nail the Day's High or Low
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particularly trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk. Variables such as the ability to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses as well as maintaining adequate liquidity are material points which can adversely affect actual real tradingresults.”



Here's another tool that we have never seen in any other 'retail' platform. TopGun Software is an institutional trading platform geared towards professionals and money managers. One of the reasons we give it to Forex traders free who trade with us (Plus pay their eSignal fees) is because we feel that our software works and it gives most traders the edge they need to trade more confidently.

Probability bands use each Currency's Option Implied Volatility to predict Likely Highs and Lows.

These bands show the 65%, 80%, 88%, and 95% High and Low for the Day.

As you can see in this example the GBP hits the 65% Probability Band low on 12/26 and that is the low to the pip! It then rallies up 140 pips! The next day's high is the 65% Probability Band high and the market falls 55 pips, goes back and double tops and then falls 85 pips! The next day the market stalls and reverses 108 pips off of the 80% Probability Band high.



Please view our Hypothetical Results Disclosure and LeverageFX Disclosures

Last edited by leveragefx : 06-30-2007 at 07:25 PM.
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Old 02-13-2007, 10:26 PM
leveragefx leveragefx is offline
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Here's other great examples of Probability Bands at work. On many days the market reverses from these levels almost to the pip but its best to look at them as reversal 'zones'.

In this example on the left in the GBP/USD the market stalls for 90 mins at the 65% probability band high and then rallies up just a few pips past the 88% probable high and reverses. On 1/24/07 the GBP finds support at the 65% probability band area and reverses about 50 pips. It then continues its down trend stopping just 7 pips away from the 95% probable low. On 1/26/07 the low of the day was the 65% probability band.

This tool is to be used with our other trading methods and as a tool to increase your odds of a successful trade. Trading counter trend is more risky than trading with the trend so use these other tools for confirmation : Fibonacci Profit Target, Trend Reversal, Statistical Hourly, 240 min, or Daily High/Low, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points.



Please view our Hypothetical Results Disclosure and LeverageFX Disclosures

Last edited by leveragefx : 06-30-2007 at 07:26 PM.
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Old 02-13-2007, 10:27 PM
leveragefx leveragefx is offline
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In these examples of the USD/CHF Swiss Franc you can see our 65% Probability band low was the low on Jan 15, 2007, the 80% Probability band high was the high on Jan 18th and the 65% Probability band high was the high on Jan 19th.



Please view our Hypothetical Results Disclosure and LeverageFX Disclosures

Last edited by leveragefx : 06-30-2007 at 07:26 PM.
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Old 05-29-2007, 10:32 PM
leveragefx leveragefx is offline
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In this example of the USD/CHF the market is in a strong downtrend (FX Multimap under -40) but touches our 88% Probability band and is the low. Notice the weakness in the FX Multimap is slightly lower giving you additional confidence to take the counter trend trade!

Trade with the Trend until the market moves too far, and then trade counter trend!

Once the whole point 1.2200 gets hit which is also our 88% pBand the market shoots up 55 pips with confirmation from our FX Multimap that the weakness is over.



Please view our Hypothetical Results Disclosure and LeverageFX Disclosures

Last edited by leveragefx : 06-30-2007 at 07:26 PM.
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